Getting A Forex Education - Forex Books

How many of us in the Forex market simply jumped in the market and started trading? I know that was my path. I tossed a few dollars in an account and figured losing it would be a paid lesson in how the markets work.

I can't say that this hasn't been a valuable path. I've learned some good lessons along the way:

• it's important to let go of losses early so you have enough capital to sink your teeth into an opportunity that does work.
• No indicator or strategy has all the answers -- stop looking for the holy grail of trading
• The market can easily whipsaw you to tears if you aren't careful
• If you place close stops they will often be taken out before the market goes your way

Really, the list of anecdotal learning is endless and difficult to put into words. However, I recognize that this isn't enough to make me a successful trader, though from time to time I'm starting to taste success. It's finally time for me to bite the bullet and learn more about trading.

No, don't worry, I'm not going to buy some stupid multi-thousand dollar Forex training course. That would be stupid. Forex trading is very related to trading in general and there is no shortage of information on either subject. To make a long story short I've purchased four books recently:

• Currency Trading for Dummies
• Swing Trading for Dummies
• The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading
• Technical Analysis for Dummies

All of these were available at a nearby bookstore -- so I didn't have to order something online and wait for delivery.

More importantly, let me list the credentials of the authors of the above books. Respectively, they are:

• Mark Gallant: Chairman and founder, GAIN Capital Group. Brian Dolan: Chief currency strategist, FOREX.com
• Omar Bassal, Head of Asset Management, NBK Capital
• Jared Marinez, FXCHIEF and founder of The Market Traders Institute, Inc.
• Barbara Rockefeller, International economist and trader

My advice? Never, ever, fail to look for the ideas of experts. Even if you don't agree with everything they say, which is appropriate, they should be able to increase your understanding and improve your own thinking.

I've had some days with a NAV appreciation of 10%, 20% or more. I'd like to have a lot more days like that... and I don't think that online sources created for the purpose of flogging affiliate commissions will do that for me.

Forex For The Small Speculator

Today was a banner day for me... trading the AUD/JPY with a return of more than 10% NAV. The market simply walked up and down my trend lines bringing me profits with every pass. How come this doesn't happen more often?

Anyway, as a small time speculator I thought I'd outline some issues that we face compared to some of the larger traders:

• We trade in very small lot sizes
• To make any meaningful revenue we may trade with a large percentage of our NAV.
• Carry trading strategies may be meaningless

Each of these issues is something that we need to think about and potentially make some adjustments to compensate.

Small Lot Sizes
If you want to trade in small lot sizes you need to find a broker that doesn't charge you an arm and a leg for the privilege. I trade at Oanda and they let you trade with any lot size without any adjustment in spreads. I recommend them and I'd give a referral link if they had an affiliate program.

Trading Large NAV Percentags
There is nothing wrong with trading a large percentage of your NAV as long as you know what you are doing. It's a problem if you are trading this way because you keep acquiring positions as the market moves against you. It's okay if you take a measured defined risk because the market has entered a condition that you have decided represents an opportunity. It is very important to get out of losing positions once you know that your market position is unfounded.

Carry Trading Becomes Useless
If you only have hundreds of dollars in your Forex account, then there is no point trying to take advantage of carry trades. If the market didn't fluctuate so much it might be worthwhile, but in all likelihood you'll make a few bucks here and there and end up wasting your time. So what if you make 200% over a year, you still only have several hundred dollars in your account.

Concluding Thoughts
When you are trading relatively large positions relative to your account size, it can be exciting. You'll quickly win or lose tens of percentage points. If you are good you'll be able to build up a bit of a nest egg before too long and then start trading more appropriately for the size of the account you've built up. Quite simply, as your account gets larger the need to large risks dissipates.

Get out there, take your time, make sure the market sets itself up for you just right, and then stomp around and rip a few dollars out!

Forex Scalping Information

Okay, I've been trying to find information on forex scalping and the pickings are mightly slim indeed. In fact, the so-called information on the net is so bad I'm going to write up a small post of my own... because I'm sure if you found this page you are desperately looking for some real information.

What Is Scalping?
Quite simply, very short term trading.

Why Don't Brokers Like Scalping?
Well, some brokers don't like scalping because of how they are set up. If they are not able to execute your trades quickly or efficiently enough then they risk being the source of your profits.

Does Scalping Work?
I've seen some people claiming that it works great as well as others claiming that it is impossible to do profitably. The reality is that if you can predict the direction that an equity pair will move, either up or down, then you can hop into the market and grab a few pips when it happens.

How Easy Is It To Predict Equity Pair Price Changes?
Well, that's the million dollar question! I don't have any books to sell or anything, but a lot of people claim to have solutions for you. Personally, I think if they really had solutions that worked they wouldn't waste time telling you about it, they'd be busy trading. However, in an effort to be informative, when you spend enough time watching a market (which is quite boring) you'll get a feel for it's current state and how it is moving. Often, until conditions change, you can be fairly accurate with your predictions.

Can Anyone Do This?
If you find a market maker that doesn't mind scalping, you can try. However, you must know how to place stop and limit orders with their trading platform. In particular, it would be very nice if you were able to have someting known as a trailing stop. As well you will want to understand the concept of leverage as it applies to a forex account. Basically, I'd suggest throwing $100 at a starter account and playing around, carefully, until you've made enough bad decisions to learn how things work. After that, you should have the tools needed to try out various strategies.

How Much Effort Is It?
Scalping is very time consuming. You have to spend a lot of time watching the markets, to the point that it would be difficult to do well if you had an existing full time job. Also, scalping is very demanding from a psychological point of view, as you will have large amounts of your capital ready to put into play, but you may have to wait hours before you spot a good entry point. Then, upon entry, you might find you are back out with a small loss in no time. Alternately, you might get a small profit, take it, and then watch the market skyrocket after your exit. The shorter your trading is the more attention it will take and the more nerve wracking it will be.

Are You Scalping?
I'm thinking about it. I've been opening up a grid strategy to catch swing trades, but I have noticed that using half of the scalping mentality to accumulate positions in trends may be able to have a significant positive impact on my results. I guess I'll end up letting you know how things work out.

Friday Forex Recap

This has by far been my best trading week...

I might have made more in the past but it was admittedly just hit and miss combined with patience. This last week I've been following technical indicators and doing more than just hope for the best at Bollinger boundaries.

Sunday PM through Monday PM -- NAV +3.05%
Tuesday AM through Tuesday PM -- NAV +2.93%
Wednesday AM through Wednesday PM -- NAV +8.2%
Thursday AM through Thursday PM -- NAV +3.9%
Friday AM through Friday PM -- NAV +1.1%

During the business day I've been able to take positions for hours at a time and generally end up ahead. In the evenings the market seems to slow down, but I am now generally able to scalp out dollars using the 1m and 5m in concert.

Additionally, when I am behind in a day trade or a scalping position I am often able to spot a good reversal point and take advantage of that with a second position. Doing this a few times can earn back the losses on the original trade -- assuming it still appears to be a good idea to hold onto it.

Some things I've realized this week:

• I now understand what people mean when they talk about not trading on Sunday or Friday. Now that I can begin to get a feel for the market I noticed that movement and opportunity were lacklustre during these periods.
  
  
• I can scalp! This is awesome. It's powerful to be able to scratch pips out of the markets whether they are rising or falling. It's nice to know I can do this if I have a position I want to hold but that is making me nervous as it accumulates a loss before the expected move.
  
  
• I don't know if these results will now be typical for me or not, but I do finally understand that it isn't impossible to work the markets and earn money.
  
  
• As well, I understand that I don't want to be trading around news events. If I'm carefully looking for technical setups, the last thing I want is some huge sudden movement due to news. Not only will this potentially catch me on the wrong side of a trade, but it may throw off my ability to analyze things for a while

I should note that my net asset value increases are not compounded. I do skim off most of the gains and push them into a much less risky sub-account. I have no idea whether or not I can trade with the same style when the numbers get bigger. The psychology of seeing larger losses mounting, or higher gains accrue, may throw off my style and keep me from making any money.

As I Get Better

I probably shouldn't be trading during this period. I know there is thin volume, that moves may not reflect wider market sentiment, and whatever else I should know. However, I simply like to trade. Besides, now that I'm getting better, it's a hobby that can generate an income.

One thing I've noticed though is that I'm still too impatient. Basically, my worst batting average will coincide with my first trades. I simply don't wait for a good enough entry point when my account has been squared. This doesn't stop me from earning revenue or anything like that, but it certainly does limit my ability to do so as I have to be cautious about how much risk I put on the table at any one time.

Because this first trade is most likely to end up under water I am often in a position where I have to extract myself from this trade. For example, over the last few days the market has been range bound. I don't feel any particular rush to liquidate my ill-timed position, but it would be nice not to have it hanging over my activities.

So, as we approach what appears to be the top of our range I will sell a profitable position and then liquidate a portion of my ill-fated trade. Perhaps the ratio will be something like 5:1 in terms of profit versus loss. This means that I'd earn $5 on my winning position and accept $1 of loss on my losing position.

As long as what is over your head is not a huge position relative to your willingness to accept risk, then you can just whittle away at it. Once again, as I discussed in my last post on "extractions", you have to keep calm about things and be comfortable in the knowledge that you have a nice win/loss ratio to take advantage of. Besides, as long as the risk level is kept low, you might just find that the position becomes profitable again before you've gotten rid of it.

Extraction Strategies

Extraction strategies? What the heck is that?

Underwater Psychology
If you are like anyone else you've found yourself in a trade that is going against you from time to time. You start to imagine reasons why the price could continue to move against you.

For example, this morning I was underwater in a position due to the spike in AUDJPY. The price of oil was rising due to the conflict in Gaza, apparently. At the same time, due to the recent break of a long term resistance line I'd expect a long term upward trend. Oh, not to mention that in thin markets I'm unsure how prices will react to these issues.

On my side was the fact that the 5m, 15m, 1hr and 3hr were all pinned at the top of their respective stochastic indicators.

First, keep your cool. If you are entering with reasonably sized positions you shouldn't be facing an emergency even if you expect the market is in a long term trend against you. If you aren't in a panic then look for the ability to work your way back out of your trades...

All At Once
This strategy is fairly ballsy, but when it works it feels really good. Look for indications that the upward spike is coming to an end. Perhaps a double top, long term indecision, stalling at a resistance level, or some other good probability situation. At this point you can acquire another position. You may find this happens more than once before you get an eventual correction. Each time you dip your toe in draw a new horizontal trend line at your current break even point. Pop out when you have a small profit and get your bearings.

Salami Method
While this strategy is less risky, it can be easier to perform once the market establishes a new consolidation zone. As you approach a high in what seems to be the new consolidation zone, acquire another position. As you eek out a bit of profit close your profitable entry, protecting that profit from a market reversal, and then close off a small portion of your losing trades. Over time you should be able to use many small profits to reduce open positions and square your account.

Who Gets Underwater?
Look, though all the get-rich-quick kiddies in the online forums are trying to scalp their way to riches, this is not how everyone trades. These people use positions that are quite large with respect to their NAV and they are not able to maintain positions during periods of loss. With small trades, patience, and an ability to know whether or not it's time to throw in the towel you can survive being underwater quite handily.

The Big Picture
I like to think of the markets being "rational" or "irrational". When the markets are irrational, they are not adhering to your technical analysis. Whether fundamentals, news, or other issues are taking precedence does not matter. What matters is that you look for periods of rationality to make your trades. If the markets become irrational while you are in the pool, don't panic. Unless things are truly horrific, try to wait until the 1hr or 3hr stochastic indicators have gone your way.

This is how I was able to get out of some underwater trades just this morning. With all the stochastics pinned against me, I opened a position at an apparent top. The AUDJPY then dropped like a rock, below my new break even point, and I closed my positions for a small profit.

I don't care if I missed some upside on a continued drop. I believe the market will continue to move upward in the long term -- so I don't want to hold on to short positions for long term gain.

Hmm, another thought. If you are a beginner and aren't able to generate a high percentage of winning trades, these strategies probably are not for you. You have to be able to create winners or else entering more positions will simply sink you further into distress.

Forex: What Is A Pip?

If you are a beginning forex trader you might be wondering what exactly a pip is. Everyone throws around the lingo but hardly anyone ever stops to give a good explanation that makes things clear for the aspiring trader.

Generally, a pip is explained as the least significant digit of a price quote.

So, if the US Dollar (USD) trades at 120.19 JPY (Japanese Yen) then each unit of change, such as a an increase increase in value of the USD to 120.20 JPY, involves a one pip change in price.

I'm going to step out on a limb and say that a PIP is a price increment point. However, the more confusing official terminology is apparently percentage in point. Which is less confusing?

Either way, it's a single point of change in the quote price between two currencies. Now, while this is very simple, it can be confusing at first when you find out that different currency pairs are quoted to a varying number of digits.

By way of example, here are some relatively current price quotes for various currency pairs:

AUD/JPY 093.29
AUD/USD 0.8574
EUR/USD 1.4668
EUR/JPY 159.62
GBP/JPY 198.05
GBP/USD 1.8204
NZD/USD 0.7001
USD/CAD 1.0635
USD/JPY 108.75

Unfortunately, it is possible that your trading platform will display partial pips! If so, I'd recommend turning that extra level of detail off when you are just getting started. Being clear on currency price and profit/loss calculations will be much more important to you as a beginner than worrying about price moves in the partial pip range.

Why such a feature is enabled by default is something that mystifies me. I guess people in the forex industry soon forget what it is like to be at the beginning of your trading experience -- things can be confusing at first.

Forex Panic Attack

Well, if it looked like there was some panic last week, it should be very interesting to see what happens during trading this week.

I hope you've kept your powder dry! There should be some Forex fire sales happening before long. The tough part is figuring out when the currency markets are finally starting to turn around again.

Good luck out there...

Forex Market Deconstruction

Now that the trading week is over I thought I'd write about a few things that came to mind over the last couple of days.

Current Situation
Everyone is expecting the Fed to come along and put a multi-hundred billion dollar package together with the help of congress. Obviously, this is relieving a lot of the unprecedented pressure on both stocks and various Forex markets. The only fly in the ointment I'd keep an eye on is whether or not things get delayed for any period of time.

The recent explosion in carry trade prices and equity prices is completely dependent on the confidence that has been brought about by a pending solution. Any risk that the solution won't arrive when promised or that it will take longer than promised could lead to some degree of reversal.

The Mighty VIX
Have you heard various pundits talking about the VIX? Basically, it's a measure of volatility. When prices are jumping around quickly the value of the VIX will be quite high. Anyway, people have been referring to a VIX above 30 indicating some type of volatility threshold that might imply we've bottomed. These high volatility periods represent some level of market emotion, such as panic, after which everyone that wanted to sell has sold.

However, we've hit VIX values that should have represented a reversal multiple times. Is the mighty VIX broken? Why did the bounces at those prices represent false rallies?

The answer is simple really. The VIX levels that traditionally have represented a bottom, or an emotional capitulation in the markets, were previous determined during lesser financial stresses. So, various market players assumed the VIX value meant there was a bottom, but they were working on the assumption that bottoms were decided by a static value.

The VIX value needed to call a bottom is variable. It's relative! The size and scope of the problem combined with the sensitivity (or expecations) of those watching the VIX have to be measured together. The expectation of a simple reversal due to a high VIX thwarted it.

So, in the future, when everyone is looking for a 40 or 50 in the VIX, remember that a lesser disaster may be predicted by a lower VIX value. If you sit around waiting for a super high VIX value you might just be left with a pocket full of cash while the market makes it's big reversal.

Did The Carry Trades Bottom?
It would be very easy to sit back, type out y-e-s, and be done with it. Unfortunately, things are much more complex than that. We're certainly going to have some massive relief and subsequent acceptance of risk. However, a bottom will be determined by whether or not other flare ups start to occur. Are any other countries going to end up searching for that last seat when the music stops?

I hope we saw a bottom. I'm playing it like it's a bottom. I'm convinced it will be a local bottom as long as the Fed's plan is adopted.

Other issues are out there though. Will this represent a turning point for the strength of the US dollar? Will it represent a decline in the Japanese Yen? If so, then what might happen to the NZDUSD or GBPUSD? I don't know how the US economy will react, whether or not they'll print money, or whether or not they'll soon start to increase interest rates. However, I do expect the Yen to decline. It's been driven up a lot, and quickly, by people trying to preserve capital. It will go back down when those people start to worry about missing out on an ability to earn.

Expect a bounce downward. Expect it to happen when you think all is well. Expect it to go far enough to shake your resolve. If you do get dumped, expect it to change direction shortly after... ;)